AI polls are fake, real polls are fake, and Nate Silver's modeling is REALLY fake.
Nate Silver implied Florida was in play in 2024 for Democrats, then it went +13 R. This is after he spent 9 years clinging to polling which systematically undercounted Republican support due to either sampling bias or shy voters, or were simply outright fraud in other cases (Selzer's Iowa poll).
That’s just fundamentally not a meaningful argument
You need to assess calibration. Not “accuracy”. What does “in play” even mean?