Don’t underestimate the march of technology. Just look at your phone, it has more FLOPS than there were in the entire world 40 years ago.
Yeah, but that's the current state of the art after decades of aggressive optimizations, there's no foreseeable future where we'll ever be able to cram several orders of magnitude more ram into a phone.
but it doesn't have that much more flops than it did a couple of years ago.
And I think it's very likely that with improved methods you could get opus 4.6 level performance on a wrist watch in few years.
You needed supercomputer to win in chess until you didn't.
Currently local models performance in natural language is much better than any algorithm running on a super computer cluster just few years ago.