alt Hacker NewsYes exactly.
The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme.
73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though.
There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science
Replies
> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though.
I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
its funny, tells you it barely works, and its a good meme.
Successful project imo.
For the uninitiated, I believe the meme comes from Reddit, where there is one criticism subreddit, r/ThatHappened where people accuse other Redditors of making up stories of events that never actually happened, and then a meta-criticism subreddit, r/Nothingeverhapens, where people make fun of r/ThatHappened as conspiracy theorists who think everything posted online is fake. Hard to tell how much of each subreddit is trolling and how much are people earnestly criticizing each other.
Does the existence of that knowledge make a slight bias lowering the odd on no? I could fork this and with a 1 line change earn dozens of dollars as long as I don't tell anyone what that secret change is.
> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though.
I wonder what it means exactly. Typical Polymarket looks like this:
X happens before May. [Yes][No]
X happens before June. [Yes][No]
X happens before July. [Yes][No]
...
So even if X ended up happens in December, it's still 12.5% Yes and 87.5% No?
reminds me of that one story when someone won a poker bot competition by always going all in
It doesn't matter if 99% resolve no, if they're priced appropriately betting no on every single one won't make you money.