71 cents*, the bookie gets a cut either way it goes.
Even if a cut isn't taken and there aren't other inefficiencies, any money tied up in long-term predictions is earning 0% instead of whatever the current risk-free rate of return is.
Untrue for polymarket. True for kalshi. No bookie fees on polymarket
Wouldn't it be 75 cents then? (The cut would come out of higher pricing, since the payout is always a dollar).
This is the truth of the matter, ultimately nobody wins except the bookie, who profits either way.