Pascal's wager is an argument that even if the probability of God's existence is very small, it is still rational to believe in God and live accordingly. Yudkowsky is the author of a blog post titled "Pascal's mugging", which likewise involves a small probability of an extremely bad outcome, but that blog post is completely silent about the dangerousness of AI research. (The post points out a paradox in decision theory, i.e., the theory that flows from the equation expected_utility = summation over every possible outcome O of U(O) * P(O).)

No one to my knowledge has ever argued that AI research should be prohibited because of a very small probability of its turning out extremely badly. This is entirely a straw man set up by people who want AI research to continue. Yudkowsky argues that if AI research is allowed to continue, then the natural expected outcome will be very bad (probably human extinction, but more exotic terrible outcomes are also possible) [1]. There are others who argue that no team or organization anywhere should engage in any program of development that has a 10% or more chance of ending the human race without there first being an extensive public debate followed by a vote in which everyone can participate, and this is their objection to any continuance of AI research.

[1] But don't take my word for it: here is Yudkowsky writing in Apr 2022 in https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/: "When Earth’s prospects are that far underwater in the basement of the logistic success curve, it may be hard to feel motivated about continuing to fight, since doubling our chances of survival will only take them from 0% to 0%. That's why I would suggest reframing the problem - especially on an emotional level - to helping humanity die with dignity, or rather, since even this goal is realistically unattainable at this point, die with slightly more dignity than would otherwise be counterfactually obtained."