> I would argue plenty of significant societal changes were caused by the behavior of relatively small number of people

Specific breaking points in history yeah, maybe. But that's possible because they're well connected people near the center of the network.

Those breakpoints are possible because either those few people share a viewpoint held by a large number of their peers, or benefit from knowledge accumulated throughout their civilization. Think how every dictator needs support from a huge following to get their power (and how easy it is to find another dictator to replace them if they die), or how often some breakthrough discoveries are made by multiple people at the same time. There's always a last straw that breaks the camel's back, but the lone wolf hardly ever gets a significant impact on society at large; they need a receptive audience to get any impact. Humans are herd animals.

Following the metaphor, the butterfly effect is only possible because a storm was brewing in the first place; the butterfly wings only decide where it will appear. Butterfly wings just don't have that much energy.

History is told from the perspective of kings, but kings can reign only within a society that believes in their divine right to rule.