Neither! A logistic curve is just an exponential with a carrying capacity - it is still an exponential! There is no reason to believe that AI capability, which grows logarithmically with the handwaved-resources used on it (roughly, this is compute and training data), grows, has grown, or is growing exponentially!

I know this sounds like "the moderate position" to people but you are accepting that something logarithmic is somehow in fact exponential (these are inverse functions of one another) based on no evidence or argument.

Here is Sam Altman, the one man in the world with the most incentive to overstate AI capability, accepting the extremely-well-known logarithmic growth: https://blog.samaltman.com/three-observations

What we see in reality is a basically-linear growth pattern due to pushing exponentially more resources into this logarithm.