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AnthonyMouseyesterday at 8:23 PM1 replyview on HN

> If power is expensive on a given day, electric cars can wait to charge, or even discharge if they aren't going to be used. People can wait to run laundry dryers.

That buys you days, not weeks.

The smoothing out things also have kind of an ugly failure mode. People set their cars to sell power into the grid if the price is X% above normal, but that prevents it from getting to be 2X% above normal on the first day, and then fewer people choose not to run their dryers. The batteries get exhausted sooner because their own existence prevented the price from going up very much at first, but that's the profit-maximizing strategy because nobody knows exactly how long the shortfall is going to be and the shorter ones are more common. Then the batteries get depleted quickly and when the shortfall lasts for more than a couple of days, you're not only low on battery storage, you now have more people whose cars have a charge gauge pointing to E and they need to get to work in the morning.

> The market will incentivize actors to smooth out before those kinds of restrictions are necessary.

It isn't a regulatory restriction. It's, where are you setting your thermostat if electricity hits $5/kWh today?

> At least in my corner of the Midwest, either the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, and often both.

The problem is that it's occasionally neither and that doesn't have to happen very often to cause a lot of trouble.


Replies

jjk166yesterday at 10:48 PM

> The problem is that it's occasionally neither and that doesn't have to happen very often to cause a lot of trouble.

The odds of it being neither everywhere (grid) for an extended period of time (storage) is astronomically low. You don't build solar plants and windfarms where prolonged periods of non-production are to be expected.

The once in a century black swan event where distributed power production across a continent all goes down at the same time is basically the same as a blackout from damage to the power grid, which you need to be ready to deal with on those timescales anyways.

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