> people here were so confident that OpenAI is going to collapse because of how much compute they pre-ordered

That's not why. It was and is because they've been incredibly unfocused and have burnt through cash on ill-advised, expensive things like Sora. By comparison Anthropic have been very focused.

> I'm seeing a lot of goodwill for Codex and a ton of bad PR for CC.

AI is one of the things that you cannot find genuine opinions online. Just like politics. If you visit, say, r/codex, you'll see all the people complaining about how their limits are consumed by "just N prompts" (N is a ridiculously small integer).

It's all astroturfed from all sides.

Seems very short term. Like how cheap Uber was initially. Like Claude was before!

Eventually OpenAI will need to stop burning money.

My standing assumption is the darling company/model will change every quarter for the foreseeable future, and everyone will be equally convinced that the hotness of the week will win the entire future.

As buyers, we all benefit from a very competitive market.

In hindsight, it is painfully clear that Antropic’s conservative investment strategy has them struggling with keeping up with demand and caused their profit margin to shrink significantly as last buyer of compute.

they've also introduced a lot of caching and token burn related bugs which makes things worse. any bug that multiplies the token burn also multiplies their infrastructure problems.

Is that 2x still going on I thought that ended in early April

That’s more a leadership decision because Anthropic are nerfing the model to cut costs, if they stop doing that then they’ll stay ahead.

Their top tier plan got a 3x limit boost. This has been the first week ever where I haven't run out of tokens.

The market here is extraordinarily vibes-based and burning billions of dollars for a ephemeral PR boost, which might only last another couple weeks until people find a reason to hate Codex, does not reflect well on OAI's long term viability.

> It seems like 90% of Claude's recent problems are strictly lack of compute related.

Downtime is annoying, but the problem is that over the past 2-3 weeks Claude has been outrageously stupid when it does work. I have always been skeptical of everything produced - but now I have no faith whatsoever in anything that it produces. I'm not even sure if I will experiment with 4.7, unless there are glowing reviews.

Codex has had none of these problems. I still don't trust anything it produces, but it's not like everything it produces is completely and utterly useless.

I have both Claude and OpenAI, side by side. I would say sonnet 46 still beats gpt 54 for coding (at least in my use case) But after about 45 minutes I'm out of my window, so I use openai for the next 4 hours and I can't even reach my limit.

Most of the compute OpenAI "preordered" is vapour. And it has nothing to do with why people thought the company -- which is still in extremely rocky rapids -- was headed to bankruptcy.

Anthropic has been very disciplined and focused (overwhelmingly on coding, fwiw), while OpenAI has been bleeding money trying to be the everything AI company with no real specialty as everyone else beat them in random domains. If I had to qualify OpenAI's primary focus, it has been glazing users and making a generation of malignant narcissists.

But yes, Anthropic has been growing by leaps and bounds and has capacity issues. That's a very healthy position to be in, despite the fact that it yields the inevitable foot-stomping "I'm moving to competitor!" posts constantly.

All of the smart people I know went to work at OpenAI and none at Anthropic. In addition to financial capital, OpenAI has a massive advantage in human capital over Anthropic.

As long as OpenAI can sustain compute and paying SWE $1million/year they will end up with the better product.