logoalt Hacker News

JamesSwiftyesterday at 6:03 PM5 repliesview on HN

Sure, but that blackbox was giving me a lot of value last month.


Replies

mrandishyesterday at 8:43 PM

Me too, but it was obviously wildly unsustainable. I was telling friends at xmas to enjoy all the subsidized and free compute funded by VC dollars while they can because it'll be gone soon.

With the fully-loaded cost of even an entry-level 1st year developer over $100k, coding agents are still a good value if they increase that entry-level dev's net usable output by 10%. Even at >$500/mo it's still cheaper than the health care contribution for that employee. And, as of today, even coding-AI-skeptics agree SoTA coding agents can deliver at least 10% greater productivity on average for an entry-level developer (after some adaptation). If we're talking about Jeff Dean/Sanjay Ghemawat-level coders, then opinions vary wildly.

Even if coding agents didn't burn astronomical amounts of scarce compute, it was always clear the leading companies would stop incinerating capital buying market share and start pushing costs up to capture the majority of the value being delivered. As a recently retired guy, vibe-coding was a fun casual hobby for a few months but now that the VC-funded party is winding down, I'll just move on to the next hobby on the stack. As the costs-to-actual-value double and then double again, it'll be interesting to see how many of the $25/mo and free-tier usage converts to >$2500/yr long-term customers. I suspect some CFO's spreadsheets are over-optimistic regarding conversion/retention ARPU as price-to-value escalates.

whateveracctyesterday at 6:22 PM

so it's also a skinner box

slopinthebagyesterday at 7:01 PM

Whoops haha. Surely that can't be how black boxes normally work right?

butlikeyesterday at 6:56 PM

And now it isn't. Pray they don't alter the deal any further.

retinarosyesterday at 6:30 PM

its a drug. that is how it works. they ration it before the new stuff. seeing legends of programming shilling it pains me the most. so far there are a few decent non insane public people talking about it :Mitchel Hashimoto, Jeremy Howard, Casei Muratori. hell even DHH drank the coolaid while most of his interviews in the past years was how he went away from AWS and reduced the bill from 3 million to 1millions by basically loosing 9s, resiliency and availability. but it seems he is fine with loosing what makes his business work(programming) to a company that sells Overpowered stack overflow slot machines.

show 4 replies