alt Hacker NewsAssuming there are 10 million developers and everyone is at $200 max plan, that would be $2 billion/month or $24 billion/year maximum.
Note - this is just the revenue not the profit. No salaries, no compute paid for. Just plain revenue. Profit would be way less.
But even that - if we take it to $24 billion/year and we take a 10x multiple, the company is barely valued at $240 billon dollar, lets be generous and make it double at $480 billion and then round it up to $500 billion for a nice round number.
Far far from the $800 billion valuation Anthropic is looking at.
Only a matter of time.
EDIT: Fixed math
Replies
Companies are spending far more than $200/month/developer. The $200 Max plan is a great value but you hit limits far too soon, and it also doesn't cover any of the other styles of integrations and tools that you can build and use to help your developers, like code review suggestions, which at the very least would come from additional Max plans, and not from the individual developers' plans.
Pro and Max plans are a tiny fraction of their revenue. Many businesses are spending thousands of dollars per head per month.
While I agree with you that AI companies are overvalued, I think 10 million developers at $200 per month makes 2 billion.