alt Hacker NewsI mean, the thing is, insiders will disagree. Nobody has a crystal ball to predict the future perfectly.
Military operations go awry. Countries react in unexpected ways. Leaders change their minds.
And as a potential event gets closer, insider information changes. Different insiders have different sets of partial knowledge.
You don't even need scheming and tricking. Just regular reality is already complicated enough.
That's not how insider trading works though.
Let's say that you know that event Y is going to be announced that will make event X more likely. Before Y is announced you buy shares in X on a prediction market or buy some asset that has price correlated with X. After the announcement you liquidate your position and pocket the difference.
Whether X actually happens or not is irrelevant to you. All that's relevant is the timing of the announcement of Y and the directional effect of Y on X.