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DoctorOetkeryesterday at 5:29 PM3 repliesview on HN

its not like all the RAM is passing the same machine, they can gradually increase machines and observe the change in demand, and smoothly match it.


Replies

overfeedtoday at 5:01 AM

Machines take up space in buildings (factories); both of which are discrete rather than continuous functions. If your factory is already full of memory-making machines, and want to add one more, it will cost you billions and many months to build another factory.

If you suppose you have cracked the smooth-ramping problem, perhaps you should throw your hat in the ring and soak up all the pent-up demand that SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are neglecting.

AnthonyMouseyesterday at 9:12 PM

If they gradually increase production capacity then prices stay high for 10+ years (or for as long as it takes for demand to crash) because a gradual increase in production takes that long for them to add enough capacity for current demand.

If they add enough capacity to meet current demand quickly then if demand crashes they still have billions of dollars in loans used to build capacity for demand that no longer exists and then they go bankrupt.

The biggest problem is predicting future demand, because it often declines quickly rather than gradually.

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cmatoday at 5:31 AM

Think of the factory problem from physics first principals instead, as Elon would say. Musk says he will outcompete earth fabs by building them on the moon in just a few years, deploy radiation harden versions of the chips into space, and beat out TCO vs doing this on earth.

If he can do all that that fast, the RAM makers should be able to at least 1000X their fab capacity on earth in one year. One year for scaling up existing tech is an eternity compared to Elon's timeframe for moon-fabs given the relative complexity of the challenge.