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arowthwaytoday at 6:27 AM7 repliesview on HN

I don't understand, what's so fundamentally wrong with this form of insider trading? Is the accusation that it makes degenerate gambling unfair? Is it necessary for degenerate gambling to be fair? The gamblers don't seem to care.


Replies

Quarrelsometoday at 7:32 AM

because the long term outcome is that truth will start to be defined by money. There's already been tales of journalists being harassed to change stories in order for over-leveraged betters to win polymarket bets.

I HIGHLY recommend going onto a sports subreddit match thread during a match and seeing what people say, versus the post match thread, a few hours after the match. The difference in tone is striking. While some people are probably just passionate, I'm pretty sure the depths of vitriol (that border on things like death threats) are a consequence of gambling.

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nicboutoday at 8:21 AM

If there is enough money on the table, gambles can influence real world events.

Can you guarantee a fair trial when anyone can bet on the outcome, including the judge and the defense?

It has changed the outcome of some sports matches. It could change the outcome of far more important events.

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yen223today at 6:59 AM

Matt Levine pointed out in a past article that the real danger of insider trading are company insiders being incentivised to damage the company to make a quick buck.

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szniotoday at 6:59 AM

beyond the general idea that we shouldn't normalize gambling, betting on some real-life events is horrid. think about insider trading on a polymarket bet for someone's death.

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jcattletoday at 9:12 AM

There's a difference between insider trading and gambling no?

wodenokototoday at 6:42 AM

> The gamblers don't seem to care.

Which makes me wonder if it is actually just money laundering.

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seydortoday at 8:20 AM

But this is not insider trading, beause the insider event IS affected by the behavior of the gamblers. Normally the insider event should be uncorrelated and unknown to the gamblers