alt Hacker NewsFor coding often quality at the margin is crucial even at a premium. It’s not the same as cranking out spam emails or HN posts at scale. This is why the marginal difference between your median engineer and your P99 engineer is comp is substantial, while the marginal comp difference between your median pick and packer vs your P99 pick and packer isn’t.
I’d also say it keeps the frontier shops competitive while costing R&D in the present is beneficial to them in forcing them to make a better and better product especially in value add space.
Finally, particularly for Anthropic, they are going for the more trustworthy shop. Even ali is hosting pay frontier models for service revenue, but if you’re not a Chinese shop, would you really host your production code development workload on a Chinese hosted provider? OpenAI is sketchy enough but even there I have a marginal confidence they aren’t just wholesale mining data for trade secrets - even if they are using it for model training. Anthropic I slightly trust more. Hence the premium. No one really believes at face value a Chinese hosted firm isn’t mass trolling every competitive advantage possible and handing back to the government and other cross competitive firms - even if they aren’t the historical precedent is so well established and known that everyone prices it in.
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> For coding often quality at the margin is crucial even at a premium
That's a cryptic way to say "Only for vibe-coding quality at the margin matters". Obviously, quality is determined first and foremost by the skills of the human operating the LLM.
> No one really believes at face value a Chinese hosted firm isn’t mass trolling every competitive advantage possible
That's much easier to believe than the same but applied to a huge global corp that operates in your own market and has both the power and the desire to eat your market share for breakfast, before the markets open, so "growth" can be reported the same day.
Besides, open models are hosted by many small providers in the US too, you don't have to use foreign providers per se.
Most code is not P99 though.
Also, have you considered that your trust in Anthropic and distrust in China may not be shared by many outside the US? There's a reason why Huawei is the largest supplier of 5G hardware globally.
> For coding often quality at the margin is crucial even at a premium
For some problems, sure, and when you are stuck, throwing tokens at Opus is worthwhile.
On the other hand, a $10/month minimax 2.7 coding subscription that literally never runs out of tokens will happily perform most day-to-day coding tasks
Given the very limited experience I have where I've been trying out a few different models, the quality of the context I can build seems to be much more of an issue than the model itself.
If I build a super high quality context for something I'm really good at, I can get great results. If I'm trying to learn something new and have it help me, it's very hit and miss. I can see where the frontier models would be useful for the latter, but they don't seem to make as much difference for the former, at least in my experience.
The biggest issue I have is that if I don't know a topic, my inquiries seem to poison the context. For some reason, my questions are treated like fact. I've also seen the same behavior with Claude getting information from the web. Specifically, I had it take a question about a possible workaround from a bug report and present it as a de-facto solution to my problem. I'm talking disconnect a remote site from the internet levels of wrong.
From what I've seen, I think the future value is in context engineering. I think the value is going to come from systems and tools that let experts "train" a context, which is really just a search problem IMO, and a marketplace or standard for sharing that context building knowledge.
The cynic in me thinks that things like cornering the RAM market are more about depriving everyone else than needing the resources. Whoever usurps the most high quality context from those P99 engineers is going to have a better product because they have better inputs. They don't want to let anyone catch up because the whole thing has properties similar to network effects. The "best" model, even if it's really just the best tooling and context engineering, is going to attract the best users which will improve the model.
It makes me wonder of the self reinforced learning is really just context theft.
> This is why the marginal difference between your median engineer and your P99 engineer is comp is substantial, while the marginal comp difference between your median pick and packer vs your P99 pick and packer isn’t.
That's an interesting analogy.
Not sure how your last point matters if 27b can run on consumer hardware, besides being hosted by any company which the user could certainly trust more than anthropic.
OpenAI & Anthropic are just lying to everyone right now because if they can't raise enough money they are dead. Intelligence is a commodity, the semiconductor supply chain is not.
> For coding often quality at the margin is crucial even at a premium.
For coding, quality is not measurable and is based entirely on feels (er, sorry, "vibes").
Employers paying for SOTA models is nothing but a lifestyle status perk for employees, like ping-pong tables or fancy lunch snacks.
> but if you’re not a Chinese shop, would you really host your production code development workload on a Chinese hosted provider?
As opposed to an US-american shop? Yup, sure, why not? It's the same ballpark.
I just assume any of those companies would steal my work and wouldn't care about it.
Everything they have done so far indicates this.
Running your own is the only option unless you really trust them or unless you have the option to sue them like some big companies can.
Or if you don't really care then you can use the chineese one since it is cheaper.
What makes you trust Anthropic more than Alibaba?