There's quite a lot of ways to interpret this question... but for that day's daily bet:
>A temperature of 18C was seen as a 99.6pc probability before the temperature spiked later in the day.
99.6% of them didn't take the insane bet. And at least one of those 0.4% (by value? count? idk) decided to cheat.
> 99.6% of them didn't take the insane bet.
I don't think the actual bet was insane, but the concept of betting on the weather is insane.