alt Hacker NewsIt hasn't happened in this case. Your example has causality reversed. Khamenei wasn't killed because there was a prediction market about the political leadership of Iran.
Replies
dhosek • yesterday at 6:48 PM
On the other hand, given the regime’s desire to keep internal communications secret, maybe the causality does stem from the bet.
anigbrowl • yesterday at 7:54 PM
How do you know?
It is interesting, though, that a large bet was placed not long before the assassination attempt that paid out $550k. By definition, killing the leader does imply that they are no longer the political leader of the country.
It is entirely possible that there was causality in the forward direction if the bettor had inside information about the assassination operation beforehand.