Betting against what is widely considered as “expected”, “reasonable” is such a major source of profit when one can influence the income. Whether it’s a temperature sensor one can breathe on or movement of troops one can control or influence[0], the idea is the same—except in one of the above you can add “death and suffering” in addition to some unfortunate gamblers losing their money.

A depressing thought: it will only tip in favor of common good when the probability of something that we today consider “normal” becomes so small that betting on that finally becomes profitable to insiders with influence. Imagine that world…

[0] No, I’m not going to change my writing style because it is considered a “tell” of LLM use.