Those are the forces at play, but you’re just guessing how that manifests itself in the real world. I’ll bet it’s all a lot more bureaucratic than you think it is— secret FISA courts wouldn’t exist if it was just a free-for-all the second it was out of sight.
That’s why these agencies buy data from brokers: sidestepping the mechanisms in place to stop them from getting it straight from the source for free.
We read their internal papers, that was what the Snowen documents were about. No guessing required since 2013. No warrants required since 2002-ish.