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Esophagus4today at 1:46 PM1 replyview on HN

A question I have: do you have a background in capital markets?

Because what it looks like is you asked Claude to create a stock picking newsletter based on signals that retail commonly thinks are bleeding edge but institutions have been using for two decades and probably don’t give much edge anymore (AI analysis of news sentiment…)

And you backtested from 2012-2025, one of the longest bull runs in history. Of course your strategy of “buy NVDA” will win in that window.

Which makes me wonder: have you ever worked at a hedge fund?

I have to say I’m tempted to subscribe and have Claude manage an imaginary portfolio based on your recommendations and publish that. Because to be frank, I’m fairly confident your recs won’t generate alpha.


Replies

irldextertoday at 1:56 PM

No hedge fund background, fair cop. I'm a software developer who got frustrated with discretionary noise and built something rules-based.

On the bull run, alpha here is measured against SPY, which ran the same period. The claim is relative outperformance, not that we picked a rising tide. The window also includes 2020 and 2022, not great for momentum strategies. Signals that showed near-zero predictive value in statistical validation are zeroed out of the scoring.

Paper trading is already running against live signals. The daily reports are public and free, no subscription needed to check. Methodology is at https://jumpstartsignal.com/how-it-works/ if you want the detail on what's actually being validated.

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