I expect AI to become more like the news, where every country has their own news services, rather than the global monopoly Sam Altman had envisioned. We even see it with Meta, a company that doesn't sell AI. They'd rather build their own models than let one or a few companies have that much leverage over them. This is why it's unlikely open models will disappear. That's the only thing that prevents a global AI oligopoly.

Has nothing to do with geography and everything to do with marginal cost. Software and hardware is winner takes all because the marginal cost of producing a copy of a software product is near zero, and the marginal cost of producing a hardware chip is also very low. This is not true of AI models. Both inference and training have high marginal costs, since the compute demand is intense.