> some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now

Your position is a tautology given there is no (and likely will never be) collectively agreed upon definition of AGI. If that is true then nobody will ever achieve anything like AGI, because it’s as made up of a concept as unicorns and fairies.

Is your position that AGI is in the same ontological category as unicorns and Thor and Russell’s teapot?

Is there’s any question at this point that humans won’t be able to fully automate any desired action in the future?