alt Hacker NewsThe petrodollar and petroeuro is misunderstood. The real point: These oil/gas exporting nations don't have enough investable assets in their own nations. As a result, they need to invest overseas. For a long time, the best places to invest this excess capital in the world were/are North America, Europe, and Northeast Asia (Japan/Korea/Taiwan). If you want to say that petrodollar or petroeuro is doomed, what will replace it?
It's not that the petrodollar is doomed, it's just 'devaluing'. The US isn't a stable, safe place for cash anymore. But the world still needs massive amounts of safe cash. So there really is only one alternative: diversify.
They'll diversity into Gold, rare-earth metals (they're only getting more important), CIPS, Yuan, Euro. That diversification helps everyone else, but will hurt the US, which hurts financial markets, and thus everyone else. And once they're all divested, the diversification will add risk and losses. Can't be helped though, they still need security. So we're looking at a generation of slow global decline, probably propped up slightly by the industrialization of AI (which of course China is leading the world in, as nobody cares about "better", they care about "cheaper"). China is the real winner, because all they need is oil, and their partners will make sure they get a steady supply (because it's in their partners' interests; that's what having allies is all about).
US can't stop this; their military isn't equipped to fight wars on multiple fronts, their lumbering, expensive weapons can't be sustained in a protracted conflict, their wars aren't popular at home, and they don't have the manpower. Even when they eventually start the draft back up it'll take years to build up their warfighting capabilities, and by then the world will have diversified enough that they can take the hit. (The US will try a World War anyway to try and retain the Empire, because their leaders are psychotic morons and their people are compliant, but they'll still lose. (Historic parallel: Sparta. Great military, but tiny, so most of their power came from wealth and tenant states; eventually the rest of the mediterranean got tired of their shit (installing dictatorships, alienating allies) and their empire died. Hell, even their Navy was paid for by Persia - foreign investment used to weaken rivals via proxy war))
I don't think this is avoidable. Nobody trusts the US now. The divestment has already begun. Countries aren't suddenly going to change their minds - even if Trump doesn't overthrow the government to cement this new status quo in 2028 (which he 100% will), the next President could be another Trump. Nobody wants to be subject to their insane policies (foreign & fiscal) anymore. So the US isn't a secure place for cash. Nations aren't just going to shrug and ignore it, they're going to act to protect their interests.