There are too many moving parts to predict this with any accuracy such as:

1. What happens with interest rates? Powell's replacement will be Kevin Warsh who has seemingly promised to lower interest rates in a short-term ploy aimed at the midterms. Should this happen, it'll likely be a disaster for inflation and the dollar;

2. How and when this impasse ends? Ending tomorrow is still singificantly better than ending in September. Also, there could be a comprehensive deal or Trump could simply walk away and declare victory, essentially leaving the situation unresolved but basically allowing Iran to charge a toll;

3. How bad will inflation get? I think I heard that in 2008 households still saved on average 10% of their income. That's basically 0% now. There simply is no buffer;

4. Does the AI market crash? That could happen but I'm not betting it will. Lookk at how long the market has remained irrational about TSLA;

5. How bad is the energy crunch going to get in Asia and Europe in particular? Unlike 1973, the US might get expensive gas but as a net energy exporter now, there won't be no gas like there was then. Asia and Europe (particularly for heating come winter) are in a different category;

6. What regimes are going to fall from all of this? I don't know what that number will be but I suspect it won't be zero;

7. What political realignments will take place because the US security guarantees (particularly for the GCC) and guarantees of maritime trade (since WW2) have been broken; and

8. How bad are the food shortages going to be? Developing countries will bear the brunt of this of course.

I wish I knew.