alt Hacker News> By 2031 or 2032, we’re going to have 20-30TWh of battery production
What’s the source on this? I just googled it, and the sources I see are saying 5TWh by 2036, with increasing supply chain risks over time…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-lithium-ion-battery-ca...
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global-battery-markets-are-...
Projection from past performance. There are two types of predictions when it comes to solar and storage: 1) naive, exponential, and correct, or 2) expert, with unexplained fudge factors, and wrong. What you'll see published in PR releases will be from "experts". Even Jenny Chase at Bloomberg NEF points out how "experts" always underestimate performance, and then goes and does it herself with her own projections.
I heard the projection on a podcast from a battery builder (maybe Form Energy's CEO?) in 2021 that we were at 200-300 GWh in 2021, and would have 2-3 TWh 2026, and 20-30 TWh in 2031. His "naive" prediction was correct, all the other projections have been flat wrong.
Another example, sci fi author Ramez Naam in 2020 reviewed his prior projections from 2011 and 2015 here:
https://www.rameznaam.com/p/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-...