alt Hacker News> Unavoidable AI-based productivity growth
There is no productivity growth attributed to AI. In fact, serious attempts to measure AI performance show that even if AI makes some code entry tasks faster, total product delivery times are, in fact, increased.
(This should be obvious once you realize coding AIs are technical debt generation machines.)
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METR had found this result in the past but in a recent reexamination, rather than a 20% loss, there was now a 20% gain (per recent Roge Karma article in the Atlantic). I'm not aware of all of the studies though and what the consensus is, just an example that seems to suggest this is not necessarily true.
that is today. The first cars - with steam engine, the very first in 1769! - and even the ones from the first half of 19th century also didn't look like an improvement. The AI today is more like the internal combustion engine toward the end of the 19th century - on the brink of becoming the dominating tech while using a horse was still a viable option for a time.
There's no "productivity growth attributed to AI" -- yet.
I think we've gone beyond anecdotal evidence of experience engineers finding true value in this new tech. It may not have registered yet, but skilled people are unequivocally finding value in these tools.
I agree that we have yet to settle down on the true costs involved (which will probably end up at "slightly less than a junior engineer" or something like that) - but we are months beyond the idea that it's all smoke and mirrors and no one is getting value out of it.