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yladizyesterday at 7:45 PM2 repliesview on HN

Can you explain how you got that number from the quote? I don’t follow.


Replies

bhattidyesterday at 8:40 PM

Not the original commenter, but the math is (making some implicit, but arguably reasonable assumptions):

Probability that someone in the population has schizophrenia = (1870/500000) = 0.00374

Probability that someone does NOT have schizophrenia = (1 - 0.00374)

Then if we assume that blind people have the same rate of schizophrenia as the population, Probability that 66 blind people ALL don't have schizophrenia = (1 - 0.00374)^66 = 0.78

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wizzwizz4yesterday at 7:49 PM

1870/500000*66 = 0.24684. However, it's "nearly half a million", so let's call it 30000 as a conservative estimate: that's still 0.4114 children in expectance, which isn't very many.