alt Hacker News> After all, medicine is all about knowledge, experience and intelligence (maybe "pattern recognition"), all those, we must assume that the best AI models (especially ones focusing solely in the medical field) would largely beat large majority of humans
No, I don’t see that we must.
> if we already have this assumption for software engineers
No, this doesn’t follow, and even if it did, while I am aware that the CEOs of firms who have an extraordinarily large vested personal and corporate financial interest in this being perceived to be the case have expressed this re: software engineers, I don’t think it is warranted there, either.
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You’re holding on to the intuition (hope) that we are smarter than the LLMs in some hard to define way. Maybe. But it’s getting harder and harder to define a task that humans beat LLMs on. On pretty much any easily quantifiable test of knowledge or reasoning, the machines win. I agree experienced humans are still better on “judgement” tasks in their field. But the judgement tasks are kinda necessarily ones where there isn’t a correct answer. And even then, I think the machines’ judgement is better than a lot of humans.
Is medical diagnosis one of these high judgement tasks? Personally I don’t think so.
Self-improving system given enough time to self-improve doesn't beat non-self-improving system?