Way more than six months. You may be talking about how the world looks from your vantage point, as well you should. But there’s a reason why the world doesn’t allocate trillions of dollars of capital based on that.

I really value skeptical people and skepticism generally. But what I think skeptical people would prefer to consider themselves is: rational and reasonable, with their beliefs well calibrated.

You’re not the only one to think that literally nothing major or significant has happened with AI but that’s simply wrong. Every major tech company - the ones poised to get the first best rewards, have already gotten good incremental revenue from AI via ads ranking/recommendations (Google, Meta, etc.), good productivity increases due to scale of workforce and advanced in house tooling. You won’t see these numbers and you don’t have to believe them. But I have seen them and I believe them, and I, like you, hate bullshit.