1. There’s no reason to believe AI capability improvement is approaching an asymptote, METR timelines, improvements on benchmarks, ARC-AGI are all at least linear 2. Even if it were asymptotic, it would be a huge assumption to assert that the asymptote is below general human intelligence, like human pattern recognition and cognition is some sort of universal limit like c

Also if LLM’s weren’t really getting better in general but just benchmaxxing, then it would be extremely lucky that this also happens to be leading to a general increase in coding capabilities that have been observed in more recent models.

AI has already surpassed 99% of humans in coding in narrow domains. The question is, how wide does the domain have to be before models no longer ever surpass humans? I’d wager we’d have to wait until scaling of compute infrastructure stops, wait 6 months, then see.