Why even bother asking a guy with the statistical acumen to think he can make a reliable estimate of a monthly average from some span of time shorter than two months? He's probably just going to say it doesn't matter and unfortunately he's probably right. If you sound excited enough, you can convince other people and close deals, so who gives a shit if there's really a there there? We'll see how he's doing in another decade. Reminds me of my sister always trying to get into real estate and mortage brokerage speculation, glowing whenever there's a market spike about people pulling in 200 grand a month, yet 25 years later she's still broke, doesn't own her own house, and her daughter is constantly asking me for money instead of her.
> statistical acumen to think he can make a reliable estimate of a monthly average from some span of time shorter than two months
Perhaps because those numbers are provided on the Playstore dashboard? You should question Google's acumen in providing those statistics to developers?
And people have been estimating ARR through projections for a long time.
I already have services running for a decade+ in a product which I posted here: https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=faangguyindia&next=4...
In the end, simplicity wins.