alt Hacker NewsOk, let's say they are even. It doesn't make sense to me that you think OpenAI is in a bubble but Anthropic isn't.
OpenAI, just a few weeks ago, claimed they actually have more revenue than Anthropic based the same accounting rules. Since then, Codex seems to be roaring because OpenAI has more compute capacity. OpenAI also has the majority market on consumers, which they're just beginning to monetize.
How is OpenAI levered? They bought more compute earlier and are now reaping the benefits while Anthropic's growth is slowed by the lack of compute.
You call Anthropic disciplined - I call it a mistake to not have bet on more compute.
> How is OpenAI levered? They bought more compute earlier and are now reaping the benefits while Anthropic's growth is slowed by the lack of compute
These are orthogonal points.
OpenAI is levered because it has signed commitments to compute. Those are obligations it has to pay regardless of whether it hits revenue targets. A revenue slowdown hurts Anthropic. It could kill OpenAI.
Leverage makes good deals into great deals. If OpenAI hits its revenue targets, levering will have been smart. There is a genuine debate around whether OpenAI’s leverage was a good bet. I think it isn’t. You think it is. That doesn’t change that OpenAI is levered, and that this makes it existentially sensitive to demand variation on the downside (and better exposed on the upside).
To conclude, Anthropic and OpenAI could both be over or undervalued. But only OpenAI can truly be in a bubble.