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trollbridgetoday at 1:41 PM3 repliesview on HN

The article displays a laughably out of date view of futures markets, too

  There are people and institutions, such as oil producers, who will need to sell oil at a future date. They want to lock in the price today on those future sales. There are also people and institutions, such as airlines, who have a future need for oil and would like to lock in the price today.
Airlines haven’t hedged fuel in a long time and generally run a policy now of just adjusting fares whenever fuel prices change.

Oil producers sell futures simply to ensure deliver of their oil at a certain date so that someone actually shows up to pick it up.

The rest of the market is speculation, and in particular short term movements have always been very speculative and also believed to be plagued by insider trading. Airlines and oil producers do not care about minute to minute changes.


Replies

dnemmerstoday at 2:45 PM

Airlines are absolutely still hedging fuel:

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/airline-fuel-hedging-iran...

show 1 reply
fooblastertoday at 1:52 PM

Airlines can't raise the prices of tickets sold months ago. There is still financial reason to hedge.

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bcjdjsndontoday at 2:18 PM

> The rest of the market is speculation

Metals (miners <> manufacturers) and agricultural (farmers <> food makers) futures are still non-speculative. There are industries that still buy materials from these markets, for delivery, as in they want to see the physical product in their hands. I was surprised to find that out as well