I would not be surprised if AI commits are the culprit. There is no way any service would cope with a constant stream of unfettered commits by sleepless always-on agents. Ironically, this same strategy seems to be what GH/MS (and other big companies) are evangelizing - and therefore dying by their own hand (in a way).
AI commits are definitely causing the recent issues with their platform as Github has seen an unprecedented amount of traffic since the introduction of OpenClaw. They are likely showing us a future problem that other sites have not experienced yet as the tools have not matured in a way for people to be able to adopt them towards their eventual vision for managing someone entire digital life.
That being said, Microsoft in general in relation to GitHub has shown at least historically they've caused more issues. Outages on Github have become so common place that I genuinely think people have simply gotten used to it. The recent round of these were just bad enough where people felt strong enough to make their own down status page https://mrshu.github.io/github-statuses/. Whether you agree with how they gathered their data, there is something being felt by the community that Microsoft is not being transparent with these issues.
Yes this is confirmed. Github activity surged about 10x in the past year: https://x.com/kdaigle/status/2040164759836778878
Platform activity is surging. There were 1 billion commits in 2025. Now, it's 275 million per week, on pace for 14 billion this year if growth remains linear (spoiler: it won't.)
GitHub Actions has grown from 500M minutes/week in 2023 to 1B minutes/week in 2025, and now 2.1B minutes so far this week.
So we're pushing incredibly hard on more CPUs, scaling services, and strengthening GitHub’s core features.