Even accepting your premise your options are still either:

1) Don't participate (and accept the consequences)

2) Participate (and accept potential disappointment/failure, with the benefit of having tried)

If you view 2) as fruitless unless your desired outcome is likely, you miss the potential value in the pursuit itself: working with like-minded people, building community, developing new skills, taking agency in your own life, and whatever else might come up along the way.

I don't begrudge anyone for choosing 1) (as long as they own their decision and don't force it on others), but 2) still seems like the aspirational choice I'd want to make if I could.