alt Hacker News>How confident do you want the model to be in its answer to “why did Rome fall”?
The confidence level can be any, as long as it's reported accurately often enough. "This is my conjecture, but", "I'm not completely sure, but", and "most historians agree that" are all perfectly valid ways to start a sentence, which LLMs never use. They state mathematical truth, general consensus, hotly debated stances, and total fabrication, with the exact same assertiveness.
> > Like you can maintain a belief state and generate conditional on this and train to ensure belief state is stable and performant
> ways to start a sentence, which LLMs never use
A huge part of the problem is we've invented a document-generator setup which exploits human cognitive illusions, and even the smartest person can't constantly override the instinctive brain-bits that "sees" fictional entities and infers the intent of a mind. That makes it weirdly-hard to discuss the setup's shortfalls or how to improve it.
To wit: The machine does not possess any kind of confidence about how Rome fell. Or even whether Rome fell. It has "confidence" about which word/token will next in a "typical" document given the document-so-far has text like "How did Rome fall?" It may be straightforward to burn money training the system so that its "typical" story never has a computer-character with confident words about Roman history, but that's just papering over the underlying problem.
TLDR: We can't fix the thinking-habits or beliefs inside the mind of an entity that doesn't actually exist. Changing the story-generator to contain a tee-totaling Dracula dispensing life-advice doesn't mean we "cured the disease of vampirism."