alt Hacker NewsI think there's some kind of fallacy where you can look at five drugs, all of which came from a pool of 100 promising candidates, then look at the next 100 candidates and say for each one individually that it is not worth celebrating. I call it the, "rounding to zero" fallacy.
In reality, if you have 100 5% chances of a cure for a previously incurable illness, you can celebrate each chance a lot.
> In reality, if you have 100 5% chances of a cure for a previously incurable illness, you can celebrate each chance a lot.
These numbers are obviously entirely made up, but its worth noting that 100 5% chances of a cure, means you have at least 1 cure with (1-(.95)^100) = 99.4% probability.
If you are curing an incurable disease with 99.4% probability, celebrating a lot would be an understatement.