If you trust the other party, you can always write a derivative contract. If the other party was long, their position is closed. If they weren't, they're short now.
That's part of the problem though, this is kind of a no-trust transaction to start with since it's inherently fraudulent. As Matt Levine said this morning:
'Also, just, consider the situation here. I come to you and say “hey I have some Anthropic shares, I can’t sell them now but I’ll sell you a forward on them.” You say “isn't that not allowed?” I say “oh sure it’s not allowed but I am a rebel, I’m not bound by those pesky rules.” You’re like “okay I guess” and give me money, now, for shares in the future. How do you know I even have the shares in the first place? What if I’m just lying? You already know that I am willing to break some rules; what if I’m breaking the rules against fraud?'
I don't even think you could buy hedges or insurance against this counterparty risk, because Anthropic could probably get those voided in court too.
That's part of the problem though, this is kind of a no-trust transaction to start with since it's inherently fraudulent. As Matt Levine said this morning:
'Also, just, consider the situation here. I come to you and say “hey I have some Anthropic shares, I can’t sell them now but I’ll sell you a forward on them.” You say “isn't that not allowed?” I say “oh sure it’s not allowed but I am a rebel, I’m not bound by those pesky rules.” You’re like “okay I guess” and give me money, now, for shares in the future. How do you know I even have the shares in the first place? What if I’m just lying? You already know that I am willing to break some rules; what if I’m breaking the rules against fraud?'
I don't even think you could buy hedges or insurance against this counterparty risk, because Anthropic could probably get those voided in court too.