I'm not sure this is true?

3. is more like this: You've been through 2. so many times now that it is hard to get excited about new things anymore.

Enough time has passed that some of the things you've been excited for have failed or had negative consequences. You'll stick to the things that worked in 2. and are skeptical of things that have yet to prove themselves.

In your 3., things from 2. are accepted unconditionally despite failures, making 3. inherently irrational.