While I agree with the general sentiment that decentralized, bespoke solutions will explode, and require some maintenance (which may in-turn result in more hiring), I've seen plenty that still makes me hesitant to fully embrace this idea as likely. I know this is a wall of text, so forgive me while I doom-post my thoughts for a few minutes:

For one thing, the efficiency gains are massive. Bigger than any other tool, for any other price. Our company's main product is a web-app. We've been working on a re-write of our main product over the last few years. In one afternoon, I set up a new project with our desired stack, and was able to vibe-code an MVP of our product that we've been working on in a matter of hours. It wasn't perfect, of course, but I prompted feature after feature in bite-size prompts, each one taking between 5-10 minutes to complete. It looked pretty professional, and by any measure it was certainly "good enough." Given a little more time, I could solo ship and maintain what has taken us a few years to build as a small dev team. Unfortunately, this is more like a cheap "full team-replacement" rather than an efficiency-improving tool

Then there's the non-technical CEO AI hype-train. Our CEO (and the rest of our directors) have fully embraced the Claude suite of agentic tools. They're all regularly spinning up mockups, apps, and toolchains every single day. I can tell they're addicted to it, and they see the gains first-hand. In fact, while it hasn't happened yet, I wouldn't be surprised if the CEO laid off the majority of the dev team and vibe-coded the entire app himself (along with a few experienced devs). For now, they hold the view that "AI is a multiplier, not a replacer!" and in the same sentence will say "if this allows us to go the next few years without hiring again, that's a win!" I was asked point-blank why we couldn't just vibe-code our whole app. I didn't really have an answer. Yeah, there's the nice thoughts like "we wouldn't know how to maintain our app" -- but Claude would do a decent job in a single dev's hands, or "AI will potentially change the application unintentionally and introduce bugs" -- but proper observability, testing, and further prompting could fix those things in minutes to hours.

Frankly, it just doesn't make sense for companies to keep their whole dev team around anymore. No matter how many projects you launch and initiatives you tackle, the backlog will rapidly shrink, while individual dev capacity grows to exorbitant heights. Non-technical CEOs don't care about tech-debt, cognitive debt, poor software design practices, learning to code, keeping devs smart, the joy of problem solving, the art of a good algorithm or architecture; they care about shipping a product that works reasonably well, provides value, is worth paying for, and doing so for the cheapest investment possible. Unfortunately, AI fits THAT bill in nearly every single way.

I'm hoping you're right, and that the sheer volume of software being created now will increase demand. I'm worried, though, that it will never be enough to offset the massive capacity gains we get from AI.