alt Hacker NewsI think you're obviously wrong (based on my relatively detailed but certainly somewhat out of date and not expert level knowledge of LLM internals) but if you're willing to explain your reasoning I'm willing to reconsider my own position in light of any new information or novel observations you might provide.
GP is obviously wrong, and probably doesn't know about calibration and/or that it isn't even clear how to calibrate frontier models in the manner we need, given how complex and expensive the training is, and how tricky calibration becomes in e.g. mixture-of-experts and chain of thought approaches.