> The individual who is the best at predicting the future

Going to need a big citation for that claim

My own bet is end of that decade: somewhere between 2045 and 2050.

Ofc "full labor automation" has a certain spread of meaning. A sliver of population will always find ways to hold to a job or run one or many businesses. But there will be "enough" labor automation for it to be a social ticking bomb. That, in fact, does not depend on better models nor better AI than we have today. By 2045 there will be a couple of generations that has been outsourcing their thinking to AI for most of their adult lives. Some of them may still work as legal flesh of sorts, but many won't get to be middle man and will find no job.

Also, if you could replace your senator today by an untainted version of a frontier model (of today), would you do it? Would it be a better ruler? What are the odds of you not wanting to push that button in the next twenty years, after a few more batches of incompetent and self-serving politicians?

> The individual who is the best at predicting the future

Yeah well my prophet says he can beat up your prophet in a fight.

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Here in reality, I'm not accustomed to taking random predictions without backing evidence as if they were truth.

Predicting who will predict the future best is hard.

Past results is no guarantee of future performance.

> The individual who is the best at predicting the future

Lol