alt Hacker NewsSuch a long article to say that neither side has a fucking idea about what will happen next.
While we're at it, the "exponentials are actually sigmoïds" meme is not necessarily true. While exponentials are never exponentials, sigmoids are not guaranteed. Overshoot-and-collapse examples also happen in tech, e.g. the dotcom bubble, or the successive AI winters.
It's really not that long, and is quite clear that its main point is about how to reason when you realize no one actually knows what's going on.