Right, and thence back to the point of TFA.

Either you black-box the curve and assume that you will keep stacking sigmoids for about as long as you already have already seen.

Or you white box it and make some actual technical argument about why the curves can’t keep stacking.

There are plenty of plausible arguments here. Scott is not arguing that the exponential must go on forever.

He’s making a meta-level point about the debate; you have to pick one of the above, and you can’t just argue that “now is the time the s-curves will stop stacking” without providing some justification.

Sure, but we have no prior reason to expect that the 'rate of discoveries' is going to drop off significantly in the next few years. Certainly not stop entirely.