alt Hacker NewsI had a manager institute PERT estimations for every task/sticky, which was interesting but not necessarily worth it.
In the end, the work takes the time it takes, and nobody knows how long that will be ahead of time. Fiddling around with estimates helps with ranking but not prediction.
If the work takes the time it takes and nobody knows how long with that, why not track and iterate on the predictions versus outcomes creating experience and data that would enable prediction and prediction refinement?
Over time the estimates should be trending closer to outcome, as the process improves in breaking down and specifying the details that impact prediction & work, and the statistical gap from previous estimates gets baked into future estimates. The process, capabilities, ability to identify diverging factors, and correction of initial estimates should all be maturing concurrently.
The entire point of using fuzzy numbers is to enable fuzzy yet usable predictions. Similar work in a similar situation, armed with specific statistics and outcome, should be highly predictable at the team and individual level over time.