That seems unlikely. There are many providers for open models on openrouter. It seems unlikely that they are throwing money away for each token they sell.
Also, there a good technical reasons for inference being much more efficient at scale.
The providers on OpenRouter serving open models aren't "throwing money away", agreed.
But that's not the point I'm making. (or, it kind of is, but it's more high level than that).
They're running spot and preemptible GPU instances (60-80% cheaper than on-demand), paying wholesale industrial electricity rates, and running at multi-tenant utilisation densities that make your MacBook look like a bonfire. Of course they're not individually loss-making on inference, they're aggregating cheap commodity compute and skimming a margin, and on paper that's what makes it seem like a good idea, certainly not a loss leader right?
But zoom out a bit; the entire stack is swimming in VC money. OpenRouter itself just raised at a $1.3B valuation backed by a16z. The Chinese models that now account for 36% of all tokens routed through the platform (DeepSeek, Qwen) are priced the way they are because Beijing-adjacent capital has decided market share matters more than margin right now.
So yes, technically no single party is "throwing money away" on each token; they're just all simultaneously subsidising different parts of the stack for strategic reasons. The floor price you're seeing isn't a stable equilibrium, it's a pile of investor money that hasn't entirely finished burning yet.
The providers on OpenRouter serving open models aren't "throwing money away", agreed.
But that's not the point I'm making. (or, it kind of is, but it's more high level than that).
They're running spot and preemptible GPU instances (60-80% cheaper than on-demand), paying wholesale industrial electricity rates, and running at multi-tenant utilisation densities that make your MacBook look like a bonfire. Of course they're not individually loss-making on inference, they're aggregating cheap commodity compute and skimming a margin, and on paper that's what makes it seem like a good idea, certainly not a loss leader right?
But zoom out a bit; the entire stack is swimming in VC money. OpenRouter itself just raised at a $1.3B valuation backed by a16z. The Chinese models that now account for 36% of all tokens routed through the platform (DeepSeek, Qwen) are priced the way they are because Beijing-adjacent capital has decided market share matters more than margin right now.
So yes, technically no single party is "throwing money away" on each token; they're just all simultaneously subsidising different parts of the stack for strategic reasons. The floor price you're seeing isn't a stable equilibrium, it's a pile of investor money that hasn't entirely finished burning yet.