There are times where I immediately guess it, the recent mitchell post of AI psychosis was something that I recognized (which is now at 2k upvotes)

But there are other times where I am wrong too and I even comment on threads with less upvotes because the topic is so interesting yet my comment just ends up being isolated.

It's really more like a 50/50.

Even the one post of mine which had reached the front page of Hackernews was something that I absolutely knew could reach front page but then there weren't much responses for a few days but then after a few days, I saw that it was re-uploaded (I think that Hn selects a few submissions which are interesting, I forgot how that mechanism worked) and then I reached the front page of Hackernews ;)

Either way, I think people should just make what they feel is interesting but I remember reading some article once which said a few things which this article follows:

1. I built XYZ... gets more frontpage than we built XYZ...

2. having (Open source) in the title increases the chances too

This article has both of them so its definitely interesting to see it on front page, either way its an really interesting project :-D