I was a baby when the Internet Revolution happened. I was in high school and college when the Mobile Revolution steamrolled everything. It’s been interesting to see this one, as an adult working in the world. I wonder how far it will go.
Further than the doomers think, but not enough to pay off the investors of the original boom. I say that as someone who has been an early believer in the internet (first website in the 90s), mobile data (slurping down the 'net, IRC, and IMs via EDGE data), smartphones (N80ie), streaming media (RIP Windows MCE), the list goes on.
Models were always going to be the commodity, just like the most popular and viable use cases at present are less job-replacement than "let's analyze huge data sets for patterns we're missing, and adjust accordingly" or "probabilistically generate deterministic software for me for X function/task". One-offs simply aren't profitable when models are interchangeable commodities, hence that brief attempt to pivot to "pay by outcome" before giddily embracing the classic consumption-based-billing playbook.
Further than the doomers think, but not enough to pay off the investors of the original boom. I say that as someone who has been an early believer in the internet (first website in the 90s), mobile data (slurping down the 'net, IRC, and IMs via EDGE data), smartphones (N80ie), streaming media (RIP Windows MCE), the list goes on.
Models were always going to be the commodity, just like the most popular and viable use cases at present are less job-replacement than "let's analyze huge data sets for patterns we're missing, and adjust accordingly" or "probabilistically generate deterministic software for me for X function/task". One-offs simply aren't profitable when models are interchangeable commodities, hence that brief attempt to pivot to "pay by outcome" before giddily embracing the classic consumption-based-billing playbook.