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steve1977yesterday at 8:08 PM7 repliesview on HN

Isn't the stock market a prediction market as well?


Replies

kube-systemyesterday at 9:00 PM

No, a stock is a share of ownership in a company.

Now yes, people bet on the derivative value of those ownership shares... but that also happens to basically every asset. If a stock is a prediction market, then so is corn, and gold, and your home.

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foobarchuyesterday at 8:31 PM

The difference in my mind is that prediction markets and gambling are betting on outcomes, not long term behaviors. You could make the argument that they are the same, in the sense that buying a stock is "betting" on a company to do well, but I think you'd be making a silly argument. Stocks are intangible these days, but they were traditionally a physical thing that one would trade. If you're betting on prediction markets, there's nothing to trade after the event happens, just payouts.

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natasyesterday at 11:47 PM

Stocks aren't prediction markets, but options and futures are.

wnc3141yesterday at 8:12 PM

I think the stocks don't have a arbiter managing a discrete outcome between parties that don't have any KYC compliance.

aheppyesterday at 9:30 PM

Couldn’t we say that any market rewards prediction? And that this is generally seen as a beneficial quality that results in more accurate valuations with better liquidity?

rizzom5000yesterday at 9:10 PM

Stock prices are a prediction built on crowdsourced information.

unethical_banyesterday at 10:05 PM

A commenter noted that MN already bans sports-betting, which is far closer to what prediction markets are than asset trading.

A closer stock analogy would be options.