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kube-systemyesterday at 9:25 PM1 replyview on HN

This is true, however many of those arguments are weaker when applied to things for which the outcome is more consequential than the outcome of a sporting game.


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superfrankyesterday at 9:57 PM

Sure, but that's not really an argument to ban prediction markets, it's an argument to regulate what the public can or cannot bet on.

Most major online sportsbooks have taken bets on the US presidential election for well over a decade. I can't imagine anyone really arguing that it's okay for DraftKings to offer that market, but not okay for Polymarket to offer it.

I put it somewhere else in this thread, but there are actually two different questions that need to be answered separately. Are prediction markets just sportsbooks by another name and are there certain things that we should not allow people to gamble on.

The argument around prediction markets always seems to squish those two into one which I think does people who want regulation a disservice. I think to most people, the answer to first question (are prediction markets just sportsbooks by another name) is a pretty resounding yes. The second question has a lot more room for debate though. Even if people agree that there should be things we don't allow people to bet on, there's still plenty to argue over where we draw the line. The problem is that as long as we mush these two together, people will use the disagreement over the second question to prevent action from being taken on the first.

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